This graph combines historical forecast performance with the latest available PV generation forecast. Use the canton selector to examine individual cantons or the national aggregate

The historical portion is reconstructed from the first three hours of each previous ICON forecast, creating a continuous time series of both the Baseline and ML-Corrected forecasts. Values beyond the latest available observation are generated by the latest forecast.

The Baseline represents raw physical PV-model production. ML-Corrected is the primary forecast product after machine-learning post-processing trained against Pronovo production data. The uncertainty bands show the P10-P90 range derived from the ensemble forecast.

Estimated Actual PV Production is estimated total cantonal production based on Pronovo gross production data, scaled by the ratio between registered cantonal PV capacity and the capacity represented in Pronovo.

ENTSO-E Actual, Intraday and Day-Ahead are external reference series from the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. Only national production available.

This graph displays individual ICON forecasts issued during the previous 60 days. Each forecast is identified by its ICON initialization time, shown as Ref Time, allowing comparison as new weather information becomes available.

Historical forecasts can be compared against Estimated Actual PV Production to assess forecast behaviour, stability, and whether observations generally fall within the predicted uncertainty range.

These maps provide an overview of predicted daily PV generation across Swiss cantons for D+0 and D+1. Production shows expected daily generation, while the Spread / Production ratio shows the relative magnitude of forecast uncertainty.

They help identify regions with high expected generation and areas where uncertainty is particularly large for energy-market and risk-management decisions.

These statistics evaluate historical forecasts against Estimated Actual PV Production for each canton and Switzerland as a whole. Results are available over the full evaluation period and by month to identify changes in accuracy and systematic bias.

For MAE / Actual and Bias / Actual, the denominator is mean Estimated Actual PV Production over the selected overall or monthly evaluation period.